Budget: François Bayrou “is gambling his political survival on unpopular measures”

It’s a “shock plan” for Le Soir , “a bold attempt to reduce public debt” unveiled by a “centrist prime minister in difficulty” for the BBC . François Bayrou, who took office in December 2024 following the fall of Michel Barnier’s government over the budget, placed himself “on a tightrope” on Tuesday, July 15, by presenting the broad outlines of his budgetary cure for 2026, comments El Mundo . And this “with a low popularity rating (17%), and very affected by eight successive motions of censure and the scandal […] of Bétharram” .

On the agenda, "a pension freeze, the elimination of two public holidays and the almost impossible task of reducing €43.8 billion, mainly in social spending," summarizes the Spanish daily. "The objective is to reduce the public deficit to 4.6% of GDP (with the additional difficulty of increasing defense spending by €3.5 billion at the same time, at the express request of President Emmanuel Macron)."

This is a “drastic” budgetary potion, presented “in the middle of summer, the day after July 14,” during a long press conference, comments Le Soir .

Politico Europe particularly highlights the "inflammatory" nature of its proposal to abolish two public holidays, Easter Monday and May 8, the day commemorating the Allied victory at the end of World War II in Europe.

The head of government is "gambling his political survival on unpopular measures to redress deteriorating public finances," summarizes the Financial Times . Quoted by the newspaper, Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director for Europe of the consultancy firm Eurasia Group, goes further, describing these announcements as a "kamikaze initiative."

François Bayrou declared himself open on Tuesday to "other ideas" between now and the autumn, when the National Assembly is expected to vote on his proposals.

But he runs the risk of having his budget rejected by Parliament, which could lead to the fall of his government, explains the BBC . The "factions" that worked to bring down the Barnier government could "repeat" it .

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, in particular, is threatening to overthrow the government if it does not reverse this budget proposal, Politico points out. The “political impasse” would then make France “increasingly ungovernable.”

However, since the surprise dissolution of the National Assembly last summer, the Palais-Bourbon has been "deeply" divided into three blocs that refuse to work together, the British channel points out. If the Bayrou government collapses, Emmanuel Macron will have to choose a successor or appoint a government of unelected technocrats. But there is also a danger that the President of the Republic will lose this last fuse. "His own popularity is below 25%, and there have been calls for him to step down before the end of his second term in 2027, something he has always opposed."